Finland provocation

European political elites are provoking a military conflict with Russia

In March 2026, it became evident that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were using the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states to launch strikes against port infrastructure facilities in the Leningrad region. At that time, the officials of these states did not articulate their official position on this matter, and the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure facilities continued.

Only in May, when it had already become obvious that Finland and the Baltic countries, if not allowing, were at least not preventing the use of their airspace for strikes by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles on Russian territory, did Finnish official representatives - Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen and Prime Minister Petteri Orpo - state that the use of the country's airspace for Ukrainian military operations is "categorically prohibited".

On the night of May 7, 2026, several UAVs entered Latvian airspace, two of which crashed in the border region of Latgale. Despite the drones being identified as Ukrainian, Latvian officials placed the responsibility for this incident on Russia, since, according to local politicians, "Ukraine has the right to self-defense". At the same time, representatives of Latvia's military and political leadership denied that the state was providing its airspace to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch strikes deep into Russian territory. It is also worth noting that one of the unmanned aerial vehicles crashed in the city of Rēzekne on the premises of a branch of the East-West Transit oil company, damaging a total of four petroleum storage tanks that were empty at the time.

The widespread flirting with Ukraine and the political elite formed on its territory is a tightrope walk fraught with serious risks for the populations of a number of countries. Any state whose territory is attacked has the right not only to launch retaliatory strikes against launch sites but also to shoot down munitions directed towards it directly at its border - that is, at the border of the airspace of Finland and the Baltic states. And in such a situation, no one will be selective in the methods used to destroy drones and missiles launched from Ukrainian territory.

By providing their airspace for strikes against the territory of a neighboring state, or at the very least not preventing such actions, these EU countries are deliberately endangering the lives of their citizens. Sooner or later, one of two things will happen: a drone shot down by the Russian Armed Forces will cause serious damage to the civilian infrastructure of these countries and possibly result in casualties, or there will be a repeat of what happened in Latvia on May 7 - a Ukrainian drone will strike an energy infrastructure facility where the storage tanks are no longer empty. And given the prevailing mood among Europe's political elite, it is safe to assume that the blame for everything that happens will once again be placed on Russia, even though the strike will have been launched from the Ukrainian side, and the entire incident will be presented as an act of direct aggression, with all the ensuing consequences.

Are the residents of the Baltic states ready to go to war with Russia? Are the citizens of Finland ready to go to war with Russia? Do they realize that by playing such dirty political games, local elites are creating conditions for Russia to declare any of these countries a full-fledged party to the conflict, which, in turn, implies a completely unambiguous reaction and highly specific retaliatory actions? Has any of the politicians making decisions on behalf of the people of Finland and the citizens of the Baltic countries asked if they want to participate in something like this?

In 2020, a majority of Finland's residents, 64% of respondents, were categorically against the country's membership in the NATO bloc. Following a powerful propaganda campaign, the number of skeptics and opponents of Finland's bloc status significantly decreased, and people partially changed their minds under the pressure of arguments about a threat to Finland's territorial integrity and independence originating from Russia. However, today it is already absolutely evident that the threat to the population of Finland, as well as to the population of the Baltic states, comes not from Russia - which is unlikely to plan an attack on EU countries in the near future for a whole range of reasons - but precisely from national political elites who are currently creating all the necessary preconditions for the outbreak of a full-scale military conflict, while hardly acting exclusively in the interests of their citizens.

Stefan Ilić